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As Americans, they face the pressures toward diversity, tolerance, and sexual liberalism that are so pervasive in contemporary culture, not to mention the deep distrust of traditional authority and hierarchy. Looking at the internal dynamics of the Church, we can reasonably suggest that if we were dealing with an autonomous American denomination, we would have seen married priests by 1970 and women priests by about 1980. But of course the American church is part of a global Catholic whole, and its policies are determined beyond American shores. American Catholics still find it hard to credit that they constitute only six percent of the world's Catholic population, however significant this minority may be in terms of wealth and influence. Ultimately, the decision about (for instance) whether women might be ordained will be determined by global factors, and not by the internal debates of American clergy and laity.
What we have here looks like a collision between an irresistible force and an immovable object, and as long as that nightmare endures, American Catholics will face the tension resulting from demands that cannot be satisfied. To say this is not to predict inevitable disaster, to expect "irreversible decline." Things can change, whether on the side of the irresistible or the immovable. In theory, American Catholics might become more conservative theologically, perhaps as a result of ethnic changes. One of the less noticed elements of The Scandal and the ensuing controversies was the relatively tiny part played by Latinos and Asians, who constitute the fastest growing sections of the American church. Vocations might revive.
Alternatively, the Vatican might, under a new papacy, become much more sympathetic to reform. Even a future pope elected by a conservative phalanx of cardinals might, in office, become a radical reformer. Recall that the epoch-making Pope John XXIII was originally chosen as a harmless papa di passagio, a transitional pope, someone who would occupy the throne quietly for a few years while Church factions prepared for the critical next election. Obviously, it appeared, John was too old and unambitious to make any real changes while in office. Might such a stunning reversal of expectation occur again? In such a scenario, the next pope—perhaps a Latin American or African?—might approve or even initiate many of the reforms now favored by North Americans, and we would enter a dramatic period of transformation.
And then, finally, we have the scenario in which the next pope would be as conservative as John Paul II, or even more so—and yes, that could happen. American Catholics would find themselves ever more out of sympathy with official Church policies, and the Church would face internecine conflicts, accelerating an almost certain decline. But once again, everything depends on a factor that is at present completely unknowable, namely the social and theological outlook of John Paul's successor. Whatever the outcome, the next papal election should be a critical turning point in modern Catholic history.
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