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What sets Bradbury apart from his competitors is his willingness to apply the tools of economics to the actual strategies of players and managers as the innings unfold. The book opens on the baseball diamond itself. In Chapter 1, for example, Bradbury argues that the price of hitting a batter is not merely that the player gets a free pass to first base, but that there's likely to be payback. If you bean an opponent, the other team's pitcher is likelier to bean you or your teammates. This is a conventional interpretation, but Bradbury finds a tractable way to actually test the magnitude of the effect. He draws upon play-by-play data from eight complete seasons (available at www. retrosheet.org) and crunches the numbers, reaching several findings that are consistent with the simple economic insight that hitting batsmen is more likely to occur when the costs are lower.
For example, lousy batters are less likely to be hit—why put on base a guy who will have a tough time earning his way there? Teams who are losing are more likely to plunk the other team, and the larger the run deficit, the greater the likelihood that the pitcher will hit a batter. As the chance of winning a game falls, in other words, the price of plunking, in terms of contributing to a loss, also falls. Finally, pitchers who hit batters in the previous inning are more likely to be hit than those who didn't hit anyone. The retaliation effect is borne out by the data. Bradbury points out that, ironically, the adoption of the "double warning" rule in 1994—which metes out expulsions, fines, and suspension for subsequent beanings after an umpire determines that a pitcher has intentionally thrown at an opposing player—actually cuts the price of the first beanball in a game and may lead to more hit batsmen, since it ups the price of retaliation. Other chapters that bring economics onto the field provide a cost-benefit test for left-handed catchers, explaining their near extinction, and examine the incentives and payoffs for managers to argue balls and strikes.
Perhaps the most insightful chapter brings us into the locker room, examining the impact of steroids. Bradbury argues that steroids may enhance the quality of the overall baseball product, boosting fans' willingness to pay and teams' profits—by leading to more spectacular plays. Yet, steroids have well-known long-term negative side effects on players' health. Why, then, has their union resisted testing? Bradbury argues that players fear that their urine samples will yield other "health related information," for example evidence of marijuana use, which he argues is likely to be relatively high among MLB players. He proposes that the players' union should adopt its own testing policy. The union itself would fine players who use steroids and distribute the fines among the other players—very sensible, since steroid users are imposing costs on other members of the union who must subsequently endanger their own health to keep up with the competition. Keeping testing in house would also protect secrecy about other chemicals deposited by players.
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