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Jamieson said it was unlikely the resolutions would even get to the floor of the general assembly. But he acknowledged that some type of split might be inevitable, and would be more likely to come from conservatives rather than from liberals within the church.

Stuart, of the Covenant Network of Presbyterians, said he believed the issue might well be decided by moderates and conservatives who did not wish the issue of ordination to divide the church and who, at the same time, wanted assurance that the denomination "has not lost its soul".

He said in his view that the biblically based arguments often made against ordaining openly gay ministers "are growing thin" as discussion over the issue grew "more sophisticated". Members of the church, he said, were also increasingly seeing the ordination issue as "a justice issue", stemming from the Presbyterian Church's long tradition and commitment to social justice.

Stuart said that if the Presbyterian Church ultimately decided to take a more liberal stand on ordination, it was likely that some conservatives would leave the church - though he believed that under the current policy, it was gay and lesbian Presbyterians who were leaving the church.

"If we were to reach agreement [on gay ordinations] and, say, 10 percent leaves, it's not a schism. But if 30 to 40 percent leave, it is," he said of the possibility of conservatives leaving. "I don't think there's a way to solve this and keep everyone within the church, because some of the conservatives have boxed themselves in on this issue."

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February (Web-only) 2000, Vol. 44