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Nonetheless, opposition leaders have condemned the BJP government's silence over the activities of the Sangh Parivar, the extended family of RSS affiliates. Jaipal Reddy, a senior member of the Congress Party, warned, "The Bajrang Dal, with the support of the Uttar Pradesh government, is starting a dangerous game in this country. Bajrang Dal and the BJP are playing with fire."

Anand Sharma, a Congress Party spokesperson, said the weapons training "shows the Sangh Parivar does not trust in the Uttar Pradesh government's ability to control the law and order."

But Ashok Yadav, a minister in Uttar Pradesh, said that if anyone takes the law into his own hands, the government will not be silent. The arms training program by the Bajrang Dal so far has not created any trouble, he insisted.

The BJP's interest in reviving the Ayodhya issue was hinted at in the deposition of Union Home Minister Lal Krishna Advani before the Liberhan Commission, which is probing the demolition of the mosque more than eight years ago.

Indian media and political observers noted with surprise when Advani returned to his aggressive style of politics last week, striking postures reminiscent of the days when he rode the rath, or campaign chariot, to Ayodhya to convince Hindus of the need for a temple at the disputed site. Striking a hard line as a Cabinet minister, Advani said he was proud of the movement for a Ram temple, which led to the razing of the 16th century mosque on December 6, 1992.

Two months earlier, his comments were more moderate when he addressed the commission headed by Justice M.S. Liberhan. On April 10, Advani told the commission that the demolition was "unfortunate" and he "seldom felt as dejected as on December 6, 1992." He said the "kar sevaks (activists in the chariot procession) should not have destroyed the structure."

But on June 13, Advani appeared to be on the campaign trail. In Uttar Pradesh, where the ruling BJP is weakened, the state government has reiterated its decision not to pursue prosecution of BJP and VHP leaders, including three Cabinet ministers — Home Minister L.K. Advani, Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi, and Sports Minister Uma Bharatrei — after the Allahabad High Court quashed their case.

"Things are not so good for the BJP," observed Vijay Kumar Malhotra, the party spokesperson.

Some analysts suggest that the party may face its worst rout ever after its five-year rule in the state. Sources in the BJP said internal assessments indicate the party could win only 75 seats in the 403-member Legislative Assembly. The BJP has 158 members in the current Assembly.

"The BJP has reached its saturation point. The party will face the biggest-ever election rout in the coming Assembly election," said Anil Shastri, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary.

There are many reasons for the BJP's dismal prospects. The first is an anti-incumbency wave that appeared during state and national elections in 1993 and 1996. In Uttar Pradesh, bad governance, frequent changes of chief ministers, and internal feuds in the party have dimmed the BJP's chances of victory in the next election.

In the 1999 parliamentary election, the state party managed 29 seats, even though it previously held 53 seats in the earlier Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament). Foreseeing a not-so-bright future, the national leadership is considering a variety of possible alliances in the state. The BJP has almost 50 legislators as alliance party members in the Assembly, and the chief minister had to make all of them ministers in order to run the government.

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June (Web-only) 2001, Vol. 45