Hispanic Swing Vote Potentially Volatile
But overwhelming support for School prayer, vouchers, and charitable choice didn't translate into support for Bush over Gore.
Jeff M. Sellers | posted 2/01/2003 12:00AM

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Predictably, Bush fared better among the conservative Cuban-American community, where he won 70 percent of voters vs. 19 percent for Bush. Gore took the Mexican (61 percent) and Puerto Rican (64 percent) vote.
Other election studies indicate that Latino Catholics gave Gore 76 percent of their votes (vs. 24 percent for Bush). That compared with Latino Protestants who gave him 67 percent (vs. 33 percent for Bush). These other studies, according to the HCAPL report, show a contrast of the Hispanic vote with that of black Protestants, who gave Gore 96 percent of their votes; "less [religiously] observant white evangelicals," who gave Gore only 45 percent (vs. 55 percent for Bush); and "less [religiously] observant mainline Protestants," 43 percent of whom voted for Gore (57 percent for Bush).
"Again, Latino support for Gore was located between their black and white counterparts," Espinosa states. "What do these findings suggest? The Latino vote is more volatile, independent, and issue- and personality-driven than ideologically driven."
Evangelicals and Pentecostals are only slightly less affiliated with the Democratic Party than Latino Catholics and Mainline Protestants, according to the study. Among Latino evangelicals, 43 percent are Democrats, 20 percent are Republican, and 32 percent are independent (5 percent self-identified as "something else").
Likewise, 48 percent of Hispanic Pentecostals identified themselves as Democrats, 20 percent as Republican, and 30 percent as independent. Among Hispanic mainline Protestants, 52 percent are Democrats, similar to the 50 percent figure for Hispanic Catholics. Latino Catholics are 13 percent Republican and 33 percent independent).
Espinosa says the HCAPL study was the largest bilingual survey in U.S. history on Latino religion and politics. It included a random-sample telephone survey of 2,310 Latinos across the United States and Puerto Rico (2,060 excluding Puerto Rico, which is not included in the released figures).
Jesse Miranda of Alianza de Ministerios Evangelicos Nacionales (AMEN) and Virgilio Elizondo of the Mexican American Cultural Center directed the study. The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute conducted the telephone surveys from August 21 to October 31, 2000.
Jeff M. Sellers is an associate editor of Christianity Today.
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Related Elsewhere
See last week's first article in Jeff M. Sellers' reporting on the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life study: "Despite Protestant Growth, Hispanic Catholicism Holds Steady in U.S."