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Then again, Islamism doesn't have to lead to an Iranian-style theocracy, where an ultraconservative interpretation of Islam is enforced and Christians are subjugated. The best-case scenario for Christians in an Islamist state would be marginalization.

One example of what marginalization looks like might be seen in Egypt, one of the more moderate governments in the Middle East. One evangelical in Cairo says that Muslims treat Christians well, but also says prejudice still exists. For example, some university professors dock the students' grades when they notice their Christian names. Such bias will continue to limit how high Christians can rise in society. It will also prompt them to emigrate to the West.

The worst-case scenario is that Christians under a democratically elected Islamist regime would be persecuted by the state and possibly hindered from practicing their faith.

2. Greater Vulnerability to Violence Ironically, in a purely democratic polity, Middle Eastern Christians would be much less protected from sectarian and terrorist violence than they are now. This is because popularly elected Islamist regimes would be less inclined to shield Christians from the sort of terrorist attacks and intimidation that prevail in Iraq's Sunni Triangle and that compose part of international terrorists' global strategy.

Even Syria—one Arab regime that is not in the U.S. camp yet and in general incurs as much of Al Qaeda's wrath as does the United States—is inclined to protect Christians and other religious minorities. In the case of sectarian tensions that might pit Muslim citizens against Christians, Islamists would probably be slower to intervene, more apt to side with fellow Muslims, and even less sensitive to international criticism regarding human rights than Arab leaders are today.

Iraqi Christians, for example, are especially vulnerable to political and criminal violence now that Saddam has been deposed. David Mack, vice president of Washington's Middle East Institute and a former diplomat in Iraq, says that despite Saddam's severe repression of the Kurds and Shiite Muslims, "the Iraqi Baath Party reversed many of the discriminatory aspects of previous Iraqi government practice in dealing with Iraq's various Christian minorities."

So far Iraqi evangelical churches have not been attacked, if you don't count recent threats to individuals and churches in Baghdad. They're fairly safe in part because there are so few of them and their places of worship are relatively unseen. But the Catholic, Chaldean, and Assyrian churches, whose buildings are more visible, have been targeted. The worst attacks fell on August 2, 2004, when terrorists affiliated with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi hit four Baghdad churches and one in Mosul, killing 11 people and wounding more than 50 others. Criminals routinely abduct Christian hostages and threaten to kill them unless their families pay a ransom. To them, Christians are an easy target: They are unprotected by tribe or government, and they don't retaliate.

3. More Social Ostracism Many Middle Easterners already shun Christians for their perceived links to Western values and policies. This is unfair since many Arab Christians oppose U.S. intervention in Iraq as well as the West's decadent values. Although some Christians believe the American Iraq policy is divinely blessed because of President Bush's faith, most don't. Images of thousands of Iraqi civilians killed and wounded in the course of hostilities and the horrors of Abu Ghraib prison override any sense of God blessing the war. Many resent what they see as President Bush's mixing of political and religious rhetoric, which has made it easy for Arab media to portray the war as a "crusade."

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April 2005, Vol. 49, No. 4