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If you read the mainstream press, you would be forgiven for believing that America is besotted with science, that only half-crazed, pro-life "extremists" have any doubts about the miracle cures that will spring any moment from embryonic stem-cell research, and that "therapeutic cloning" is the technology of the future.

According to a new opinion poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU), you would be very wrong. Polling, of course, depends a lot on the questions you ask. So you may have seen polls quoted this way and that on these key issues. The VCU poll is generally fair. It does not bend over in either direction, and while we may wish some of the questions had been asked a little differently, its results are clear enough to turn upside down many of the assumptions of advocates for destroying embryos for research or for "therapy." Americans are much more level-headed than many editorial boards and certainly than many members of Congress.

Some of these results are so astonishing that you may not believe them—but they follow closely the results of earlier polling by VCU, so they can't be dismissed as accident and error. For example, how many Americans believe that embryonic stem-cell research "holds the greatest promise for discovering new treatments for disease, compared to other types of stem cell research?" 90 percent? 70 percent? 40 percent? 25 percent? All wrong. The answer is an almost unbelievable 14 percent. So what do the rest think?

Well, the stress that many of us have been placing on adult stem cells, which have already proven to have great therapeutic potential, seems not to have gotten through. Those who think the "greatest promise" lies here number only 7 percent. Far more have concluded that the "greatest promise" lies with "other sources, such an umbilical cord blood"—37 percent. This is a strange result, and it may indicate a conviction that "stem cell research" is the answer among people put off by destroying embryos but not familiar enough with the debate to know what an adult stem cell is (it's a very strange term).

Either way, the fact that only 14 percent are favorable to the "greatest promise" of embryonic stem cells shows that the editorialists, advocacy groups, and scientists who have pushed this down our throats for years have failed. Savvy politicians should read these numbers and ponder. They are not elected by editors and science pundits!

The clone wars
When it comes to cloning, the results are even stronger—and surprising. Cloning an embryo, of course, can yield embryonic stem cells (if the embryo is destroyed). This is what is meant by "therapeutic cloning," a dishonest term for cloning for research. A cloned embryo could also be implanted (like an in vitro embryo) and lead to a newborn child. The bioscience advocates have been trying their best to have us think of these two in quite separate categories: "therapeutic" versus "reproductive" cloning. Indeed, they try and avoid the word "cloning" altogether, and speak of "somatic cell nuclear transfer" (the technical term for cloning) "to get stem cells."

Once again, the American public has not been taken in. According to the poll, 81 percent oppose cloning as such. If cloning is done for research on disease treatments, 51 percent are still opposed, with 43 percent in favor.

But the strangest result is this: If it is specified that the goal of the cloning research is to get embryonic stem cells, support for research cloning goes down and opposition goes up. Support drops from 43 to 34 percent, and opposition goes up from 51 to 59 percent.. This is an astonishing result, since the magic of stem cell cures has seemed to provide the ultimate justification for cloning. It may suggest that people want to support research for disease cures, but are ethically squeamish when it comes to the details if they involve destroying embryos for stem cells.

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October (Web-only) 2005, Vol. 49