Related articles and links |  1 of 4

When President Bush steps up to deliver his sixth State of the Union address, he will find a clear majority of evangelicals still support him, but their fervor has been weakening.

In the 2004 election, white evangelicals gave the President 76 percent of their votes. The strength of white evangelical support for Bush is similar to that of Jewish and African American support for Democrats. The big difference is that white evangelicals are a larger constituency, representing more than 25 percent of the U.S. voting population.

In recent months, evangelical support for the President and the Iraq war has drifted downward. In December 2002, a Pew Center poll found that 77 percent of white evangelicals approved of Bush's job performance. By October 2003, that approval rating had drifted down to 68 percent. In October 2005, it was 64 percent.

In addition, backers of Bush are less intense in their support. Previous Pew polls found that most evangelical supporters gave Bush an "excellent" rating as President. Now, most give a "good" rating.

Still, evangelical support is relatively strong. By way of contrast, non-evangelical job approval of Bush has fallen much farther. In December 2002, 61 percent of all Americans approved of Bush's job performance. Within a year, the President's approval rating had dropped to 50 percent. This fall, it bottomed out at 37 percent, the lowest level in his presidency.

To get a better handle on shifting evangelical reactions, Christianity Today interviewed a broad cross-section of evangelical leaders throughout 2005 on their evolving views of Bush. CT also spoke in greater depth with core supporters of the President at four churches: Folsom Community Bible Church in California; Christ Presbyterian in Victoria, Texas; Christian Cultural Center, a New York City megachurch; and a mixed-ethnic congregation, Resurrection Church, also in New York. We also spoke with professional pollsters and analysts about their research on evangelicals and politics.

While many use the word disappointed when they talk about the Bush presidency, the general mood among evangelicals is still supportive.

White evangelical support for the Iraq war has drifted downward more slowly than support for the President in general. But Richard Cizik, vice president for governmental affairs at the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE), cautions, "The President may be skating closer and closer to the edge with evangelicals on this war."

Throughout much of 2005, the military death toll was on average 2.3 fatalities per day. Since the start of the war on March 20, 2003, to the end of 2005, more than 2,350 soldiers have been killed, including 2,172 U.S. and 98 U.K. soldiers. More than 15,000 American troops have been wounded in action.

In addition, Bush's credibility has been weakened by a number of events. Claims about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction turned out to be greatly exaggerated. The knockout punch against terrorism hasn't yet been delivered. The President's approval of harsh interrogations made Americans seem to be the bad guys in the war on terrorism. And, scandal touched the White House. Scooter Libby, the vice president's chief of staff, was indicted for perjury, and top aide Karl Rove remains under investigation for his role in exposing covert cia operative Valerie Plame.

In the days prior to Christmas, Bush delivered five speeches touching on the Iraq war. He said the world is safer with Iraq's Saddam Hussein out of power. "I ask all of you listening to carefully consider the stakes of this war, to realize how far we have come and the good we are doing, and to have patience in this difficult, noble, and necessary cause."

next page... |  1 of 4

February 2006, Vol. 50, No. 2