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2. Did religion matter in the '06 election?
"As the results of the midterm elections sank in this week, religious leaders across the ideological spectrum found something they could agree on: The 'God gap' in American politics has narrowed substantially," Alan Cooperman writes in The Washington Post. Actually, it might be more accurate to say that religious leaders at the ends of the ideological spectrum are talking about the God gap shrinking. Religious liberals say they're attracting people of faith; religious conservatives argue that people of faith are staying home, upset with Republican leaders for not giving them more. It really doesn't serve either side to tout the stats that suggest, for example, that evangelicals went to the polls in the same percentage that they have for years, and voted essentially the same way that they have for years.

As John Green of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life told the San Francisco Chronicle, "A great deal had been written about the discouragement of white evangelicals and how they might not turn out. This important element of the Republican electoral base held firm. They showed up in large numbers and voted Republican."

Now, there are changes, and the Post is right to note them: "Democrats recaptured the Catholic vote they had lost two years ago. They sliced the GOP's advantage among weekly churchgoers to 12 percentage points, down from 18 points in 2004 congressional races and 22 points in the 2004 presidential contest." And in several races, Democrats really did do better than usual with white evangelical Protestants. Nationally, however, as we've noted before, the picture looks pretty much as it did in 2002.

Are there angry evangelicals who are "fed up" with the Republican party? You bet. But that's bound to happen when one out of three evangelicals usually votes Democrat. If you consistently voted Democrat and yet were constantly referred to as "Bush's base," you'd be mad, too.

One of the more interesting election analysis pieces has little to do with how pew-sitters voted and more on how Christian political groups behaved. Guess who wrote this:

It is clear that Christian conservative leaders contributed to the Republican defeat, and in the process they've lost credibility. When Tom DeLay's excesses were exposed, Christian political groups closed ranks to support him. When congressional Republicans put on their phony legislative parade, Christian political leaders were willing accomplices. When the Mark Foley scandal hit, Christian groups faulted everyone but Republican leaders. Why have prominent Christian organizations and leaders behaved in this way? The sad reality is that many have been seduced by the Washington, D.C., political culture. They have identified themselves so closely with persons and parties that they have lost sight of principle. By excusing the behavior of the Republican Party, Christian conservatives set the party up for the 2006 defeat.

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November (Web-only) 2006, Vol. 50