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With the rule of Nigeria's first Christian president coming to an end, Africa's most populous country could be facing a make-or-break transition. All the leading contenders for the presidency are Muslims, including Umaru Yar'Adua from the ruling party of current president Olusegun Obasanjo.

So far, all signs point to a peaceful handover following April's elections. But Kenya-based Nigerian evangelical leader Tokunboh Adeyemo said many Christians have expressed disappointment that Obasanjo, a Baptist, endorsed a Muslim governor from a northern state. He urged Christians to understand the context.

"[Obasanjo] was respecting a gentleman's agreement," Adeyemo explained. According to a 1998 memorandum of understanding agreed to by Obasanjo, the Nigerian presidency must alternate between a Christian and a Muslim. Christians, predominant in the south, and Muslims, concentrated in the north, have clashed for decades.

According to Adeyemo, Obasanjo's heir apparent is "a moderate Muslim, not a fanatic."

"If [Yar'Adua] wins," Adeyemo said, "there should be no reason for Christians to fear."

Still, some do. In Akure, capital of Ondo, a largely rural southern state, Iyabode Okoro worries that a return to Muslim control would marginalize Christians.

"Even now with a Christian president, the persecution is not abated," said Okoro, who runs the family-focused Christian Heritage Ministries with her husband, Stanley. "We continue to hear of church burnings from time to time and to hear of deprivation of people's rights because of their faith."

Okoro said Muslim leaders would not be politically capable of imposing Shari'ah law across all Nigeria. But in some northern states, moves to install Shari'ah over the last few years have contributed to greater restrictions against Christians.

As Obasanjo's seven-year rule comes to an end, many Christians talk glowingly about his leadership, despite the fact that Nigerian churches helped to thwart a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. Many did not expect his civil rule to last.

"Many prophets of doom said that democracy would not work in Nigeria and that military dictatorship would soon take over," Adeyemo recalled. "He has proven them wrong."

Obasanjo also curtailed the national influence of northern Muslims, an ever-urgent concern for Christians, Adeyemo said. "He put an end to the hegemony of the Islamic north that purports that only Muslims can rule."

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Christianity Today's other articles on Nigeria are available on our site.

Other articles on Nigeria's upcoming elections include:

Corruption Charges Keep Opposition Figure Off Nigeria Ballot | A leading opposition candidate in Nigeria's presidential election has been omitted from the official list of candidates, which was released Thursday by the Independent National Electoral Commission. (The New York Times)

Nigerian VP 'excluded from polls' | Nigeria's vice-president cannot run in April's polls, says The Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec). Inec said candidates indicted for graft, (BBC News)

Nigeria: Atiku: Will He Contest? | Katsina State governor and Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) presidential flagbearer, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, collapsed during a campaign rally and was flown abroad for treatment, prompting rumours that he had died. (The Vanguard, Lagos)

Yar'Adua's rumoured death made him more popular | Interview with Sankara (Nigerian Tribune)

Where the press adds spice to the polls | The papers are plump with stories on the continuing contest between the president and the popular figure he once chose as his number two. (Mail & Guardian)

Weblog commented on recent Compass Direct reports of teen abductions and forced conversions to Islam.

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April 2007, Vol. 51, No. 4