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"The most interesting thing about John McCain in the primaries is that he's getting a big share of the evangelical vote, yet there hasn't been much enthusiasm from evangelical leaders," Green said. "Trying to pigeonhole evangelical voters by looking at a few leaders is probably a big mistake."

If McCain wins the Republican nomination, Michael Cromartie, vice president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, says McCain may lose many evangelical voters to Democratic Senator Barack Obama, whose campaign has done significantly more religious outreach than McCain's, and who regularly talks about faith on the campaign trail. "[McCain] doesn't have the ability like Bill Clinton and George Bush to use the language of redemption and forgiveness, and is theologically a little tone deaf," Cromartie said. But Cromartie thinks McCain would have an easier time against Obama's primary opponent. "The most motivating words for religious conservatives will be 'President Hillary Clinton.'"

Although McCain hasn't garnered overwhelming evangelical support in states that have already voted, he may have some hope on Super Tuesday and afterward. A January Pew Forum survey found that McCain has 25 percent of conservative evangelical support, between Huckabee's 33 percent and Romney's 12 percent.

Huckabee's national poll numbers have been dropping over the last month, and he has not won a primary or caucus since Iowa. His opponents are better financed, and Huckabee has not gained much support among non-evangelicals. Exit polls show many Huckabee supporters listed McCain as their second choice, which Green says is likely because Huckabee and McCain are socially conservative but economically moderate.

But there may be good, if bittersweet, news for Huckabee: Pundits and journalists, like the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, are speculating he could be McCain's choice as a running mate, and might deliver the evangelical support McCain has been missing.

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News coverage of McCain's surge and evangelical voters includes:

McCain's Critics on Right Look Again | Senator John McCain has long aroused almost unanimous opposition from the leaders of the right. That, however, was before he emerged this week as the party's front-runner. (The New York Times)

If Huckabee goes, who will evangelicals back? | The Baptist preacher goes up against two better-financed, better-known and better-placed rivals in 21 states for the Republican U.S. presidential nomination, and pundits give him next to no chance. (Reuters)

In GOP Primaries: Three Victors, Three Constituencies | Romney Gains Among Non-Evangelical Conservatives (Pew Forum survey)

McCain reaching out to Christian conservative base | McCain talks about his faith (McClatchy newspapers)

Other Christianity Today articles on campaign 2008 are available in our full-coverage section.

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February (Web-only) 2008, Vol. 52