Do Political Films Matter?Oliver Stone's W, which releases this week, is the latest of many movies about pols and politics, but whether they actually affect election outcomes is hard to say.by Brett McCracken |
posted 10/14/2008
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These films join a long tradition of films about elections, such as Primary Colors (1998), Bad Roberts (1992), Wag the Dog (1998), Man of the Year (2006), and the influential 1960 documentary, Primary. That last film, significant in the history of ciné ma vé rité documentary film style, followed John F. Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey for a week during that critical election's Wisconsin primary. It may not have directly influenced the outcome of the election, but it did give audiences unprecedented access to the everyday activities of presidential candidates on the campaign trail, and perhaps contributed to the "JFK as media darling" phenomenon that was ultimately 1960's lasting election legacy.
Did movies help LBJ win?
It is hard to evaluate the extent to which political films have impacted historic elections. One could argue, for example, that in 1964, widely-seen films like Dr. Strangelove and Fail-Safe—films that played upon nuclear fears and cold war paranoia—helped elect Lyndon Johnson president. Johnson, after all, based much of his candidacy on nuclear fear—claiming that a Barry Goldwater presidency would certainly plunge America into nuclear war with Russia. But had these films not been released, would the election's result have been any different? Likely not. LBJ won the election by the fifth largest margin in history.
John Wayne in 'The Green Berets'
It's easier to recognize when a film fails to sway an election. When John Wayne's The Green Berets came out in 1968, at the height of the Tet Offensive, it was meant to shore up support for the Vietnam War and was made with cooperation from the military and LBJ's administration. It did not have this result, however, with the Democrats losing the White House to Nixon in the 1968 election and support for the war dipping to new lows.
More recently, The Contender (2000), starring Joan Allen and Gary Oldman, tells the (now ironic) story of a female vice presidential nominee for the Democratic Party who falls victim to a smear campaign by the Republicans. The film, released a month before the 2000 presidential election by a Democrat-leaning studio (Dreamworks), was clearly meant to advance the cause of Al Gore—and it may have … but not enough to put him in the White House.
Though Hollywood continues its efforts to influence the opinions of voters during election years, it's unclear whether their efforts are working—at least on a national level. According to The New York Times, it appears that at one documentary, 2006's American Blackout, may have affected a congressional election in Georgia. But Michael Cornfield, a politics prof at George Washington University, told the Times he was skeptical about the general influence of films: "I think they do reinforce and intensify people's feelings." But as to whether they influence how people vote, he said, "That's more aspirational than empirical."
Perhaps film isn't the best method of political propaganda; there just isn't enough evidence to back it up. But don't expect Hollywood to stop producing election-themed fare any time soon. As we've seen from Saturday Night Live this season, enjoying 50 percent higher ratings than this time last year, politics is good for entertainment. But is entertainment good for politics? Does it make a difference? The verdict is still out.
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