Jump directly to the content

What's Up, Mormons?

Here are a few last findings from Harris and Pew, the former having to do with registered voters and the latter with likely ones. The polls are pretty close overall, Obama 53-44 (Harris) and 52-46 (Pew). White Catholics diverge radically: McCain 57-40 (Harris), Obama 47-45 (Pew). Harris has white evangelicals surprisingly close (for them): McCain 61-34; Pew has them at a more expected 68-23. Harris has Jews backing Obama 76-24 (nothing from Pew).

If there's anything really noteworthy here as we wrap up our pre-election poll-reading, it's what Harris reports on Mormons, who tend to come in for precious little attention, given their staunch Republicanism and demographic concentration in states (Idaho, Utah) where it would take a partisan sea change to make a difference in a presidential election. Anyway, Harris finds Mormons backing McCain 60-37. That seems like a pretty healthy plurality until you realize that 81 percent of Mormons voted for George W. Bush.

What's up with that? Well, at a session on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign at the American Academy of Religion, it emerged from Mormon attendees that there was a good deal of unhappiness among Mormons with the Republican Party and how Romney was treated by its evangelical base. The anecdotal evidence cited suggests that not a few Mormons have decided not to vote for the GOP nominee, and may even pull the Democratic lever.

Could such a decision make a difference? Well, both Nevada and Arizona are pretty close, and Mormons constitute six and five percent of their populations respectively. A shift of 40 points among Mormons would equal 2-3 percent of the vote in those states–which could well turn out to be the difference.

(Originally posted at Mark Silk's Spiritual Politics.)

Related Topics:Politics
Posted:November 4, 2008 at 4:04PM
Gleanings aggregates what others are reporting. Learn more.
Recent Posts
Prominent Advocate for Persecuted Christians Resigns After Sex Assault Conviction
Barnabas Aid defends its work as 'much bigger than one man' after jury rules Patrick Sookhdeo groped employee and intimidated witnesses.
One-Third of Audience for Christian Books, Radio, TV, and Movies Is Unchurched
LifeWay/NRB study examines whether Christian media is used for discipleship or evangelism.
ISIS Kidnaps 100 Christians in Syria: Prisoner Swap, or Libya-Style Propaganda?
(UPDATED) Christian leader: In light of 'barbaric record with the captured, the destiny of these families is a major concern to us.'
Died: Leanne Payne, 82, Prominent Leader in Pastoral Care, Healing Movement
Author of seven books, she supported orientation change for gays and lesbians.
Christianity Today
What's Up, Mormons?