Jump directly to the content

What's Up, Mormons?

Here are a few last findings from Harris and Pew, the former having to do with registered voters and the latter with likely ones. The polls are pretty close overall, Obama 53-44 (Harris) and 52-46 (Pew). White Catholics diverge radically: McCain 57-40 (Harris), Obama 47-45 (Pew). Harris has white evangelicals surprisingly close (for them): McCain 61-34; Pew has them at a more expected 68-23. Harris has Jews backing Obama 76-24 (nothing from Pew).

If there's anything really noteworthy here as we wrap up our pre-election poll-reading, it's what Harris reports on Mormons, who tend to come in for precious little attention, given their staunch Republicanism and demographic concentration in states (Idaho, Utah) where it would take a partisan sea change to make a difference in a presidential election. Anyway, Harris finds Mormons backing McCain 60-37. That seems like a pretty healthy plurality until you realize that 81 percent of Mormons voted for George W. Bush.

What's up with that? Well, at a session on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign at the American Academy of Religion, it emerged from Mormon attendees that there was a good deal of unhappiness among Mormons with the Republican Party and how Romney was treated by its evangelical base. The anecdotal evidence cited suggests that not a few Mormons have decided not to vote for the GOP nominee, and may even pull the Democratic lever.

Could such a decision make a difference? Well, both Nevada and Arizona are pretty close, and Mormons constitute six and five percent of their populations respectively. A shift of 40 points among Mormons would equal 2-3 percent of the vote in those states–which could well turn out to be the difference.

(Originally posted at Mark Silk's Spiritual Politics.)

Related Topics:Politics
Posted:November 4, 2008 at 4:04PM
Gleanings aggregates what others are reporting. Learn more.
Recent Posts
Houston Drops Sermons from Subpoenas
Opponents still question relevance of pastor info to their case.
Asia Bibi's Death Sentence Upheld by Lahore High Court
Supreme Court appeal likely to delay outcome for 3 more years
Patrick Henry College President Resigns Amid Board Disagreement
Walker: "The Board and I have simply decided that sometimes it is best to agree to disagree."
CCCU Settles Lawsuit with Fired Former President
'Philosophical differences over leadership approach' cited as why Council for Christian Colleges and Universities and Edward O. Blews Jr. 'parted ways.'
Christianity Today
What's Up, Mormons?