The Air Force first introduced the world to the scenario concept. It used scenarios in World War II to anticipate what America's opponents might do and to prepare alternative strategies. Herman Kahn later brought the concept over into the business world and developed it further.

Scenarios are not plans but hypothetical sketches or stories of what an organization's future could look like. It's a disciplined method for imagining a church's different possible futures, allowing individuals and churches to be proactive more than passive in dealing with the future. They help leaders prepare for whatever may happen.

Scenario planning is accomplished best in a team context. The various team members represent different perspectives that may add important insights and viewpoints to the overall process. With a team it is also easier to do the work of research and information gathering.

Scenario planning takes time to gather and interact over the material that makes up each scenario. Thus you must approach ...