{"id":11339,"date":"2009-09-23T15:15:38","date_gmt":"2009-09-23T15:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/2009\/09\/23\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/"},"modified":"2009-09-23T15:15:38","modified_gmt":"2009-09-23T15:15:38","slug":"when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/","title":{"rendered":"When a church starts declining in membership, what are the questions it can ask to diagnose that decline?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First of all, if leaders are tracking membership as the key indicator of their church&#8217;s health, they are tracking the wrong thing. Worship attendance is the most accurate, and immediate, barometer of a church&#8217;s health.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>But what if worship attendance begins to decline? What&#8217;s the diagnostic procedure?\u00a0 Here are three key numbers to research:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>1. <em>Visitor Volume<\/em>. The obvious but often overlooked fact is that churches need visitors to grow. Specifically, a church needs four to five percent of its average annual weekend attendance to be visitors (first, second, or third time). You may have excellent music, enlightened preaching, a great children&#8217;s program, and a wonderful facility, but if you don&#8217;t have enough visitors, your church won&#8217;t grow.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n<p>2. <em>Visitor Retention<\/em>. This is the answer to the question: &#8220;Of the people within our ministry area who visit our church, how many stay?&#8221; The average non-growing church has a visitor retention rate of nine percent, which means that nine out of every 100 are in that church one year after their first visit. Meanwhile, growing churches average 21-percent retention. In other words, non-growing churches keep one of every 10 visitors, growing churches keep two.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n<p>3. <em>Back Door<\/em>. The average church loses five to eight percent of its constituency each year through transfer (moving out of the area), death (&#8220;promotion,&#8221; as the Salvation Army calls it), and reversion (people who just stop attending). You can&#8217;t do much about the first two, but a higher than normal rate of people becoming inactive may indicate the need for a better assimilation strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>Once you have identified these three ingredients in your &#8220;growth mix,&#8221; try some forecasting. The first scenario is: &#8220;If nothing changes, where will our attendance be one year from today?&#8221; Then ask, &#8220;What would be the attendance projection if we were to double our visitor volume in the next year?&#8221; or &#8220;What if we doubled our visitor retention?&#8221; or &#8220;What if we reduced our back door by half?&#8221; or some combination of the three. There are, of course, different strategies to address different problems. But knowing the problem is the first step to finding the right solution.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First of all, if leaders are tracking membership as the key indicator of their church&#8217;s health, they are tracking the wrong thing. Worship attendance is the most accurate, and immediate, barometer of a church&#8217;s health. But what if worship attendance begins to decline? What&#8217;s the diagnostic procedure?\u00a0 Here are three key numbers to research: 1. <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\">Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"tax_ctp_authors":[1081],"tax_ctp_books":[],"tax_ctp_categories":[142,154],"tax_ctp_field_guide_subcategory":[],"tax_ctp_field_guides":[],"tax_ctp_format":[131],"tax_ctp_multimedia":[],"tax_ctp_point_editor":[],"tax_publications":[156],"tax_ctp_tags":[3604,3609,3615],"tax_ctp_topics":[],"class_list":["post-11339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tax_ctp_authors-charles-arn","tax_publications-leadership-journal","tax_ctp_tags-church-attendance","tax_ctp_tags-church-growth","tax_ctp_tags-church-membership"],"acf":{"scripture_references":null},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>When a church starts declining in membership, what are the questions it can ask to diagnose that decline? - CT Pastors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"First of all, if leaders are tracking membership as the key indicator of their church&#039;s health, they are tracking the wrong thing. Worship attendance is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When a church starts declining in membership, what are the questions it can ask to diagnose that decline? - CT Pastors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"First of all, if leaders are tracking membership as the key indicator of their church&#039;s health, they are tracking the wrong thing. Worship attendance is\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CT Pastors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CTPastors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-09-23T15:15:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2025\/12\/ogimage.png?resize=1200,628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Charles Arn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@CTpastors\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CTpastors\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"CMS Admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/#\/schema\/person\/85018388509706870f1ad6829069e1a3\"},\"headline\":\"When a church starts declining in membership, what are the questions it can ask to diagnose that decline?\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-09-23T15:15:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-09-23T15:15:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\"},\"wordCount\":375,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/content\/when-church-starts-declining-in-membership-what-are\/\",\"name\":\"When a church starts declining in membership, what are the questions it can ask to diagnose that decline? - CT Pastors\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.christianitytoday.com\/pastors\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2009-09-23T15:15:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-09-23T15:15:38+00:00\",\"description\":\"First of all, if leaders are tracking membership as the key indicator of their church's health, they are tracking the wrong thing. 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