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Abraham Lincoln once observed that "it is best not to swap horses while crossing the river." This month, as the 105th session of Congress convenes and President Clinton gears up for his second term, Americans are applying Lincoln's timeless advice to crossing the much ballyhooed "bridge to the twenty-first century."

In spite of election season rhetoric about the dawning new millennium, the political horizon looks remarkable unchanged from 1994: a divided government, with a Republican Congress and a Democratic President. Political analysts say, however, underneath the familiar status quo, significant transitions in American politics are in play. And for religious political activists, both conservative and liberal, steering American culture to the Right or the Left on social issues will remain a competitive and contentious process.

The Religious Right, having built a well-organized national network, is moving to concentrate its influence over federal legislation as well as to strengthen it stance within the Republican party.

"These are people who are no longer completely outside the political process, but I don't think they are completely in, either," says John C. Green, director of the Ray Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.

On the other hand, the Religious Left, with its long-standing ties to mainline Christian liberals, aspires to a Christian Coalition—like force of grassroots activists, while it attempts to hold the line against conservative initiatives.

ALL BARK, NO BITE? The November election reaffirmed existing trends among voters.

According to exit poll data, the majority of conservative evangelicals continued a Republican voting pattern that began in the late 1970s. A Wirthlin Worldwide poll commissioned by the Christian Coalition found that a majority of self-identified born-again Christians who frequently attend church voted Republican in both the presidential and congressional races. This group gave Bob Dole one of his highest vote margins—53 percent, compared to 36 percent for Clinton. The study also showed that one out of every four voters was a self-described born-again church attender.

In the view of Ralph Reed, Christian Coalition executive director, such figures indicate that "conservative evangelicals were the firewall that prevented a Bob Dole defeat from mushrooming into a meltdown all the way down the ballot."

But Jill Hanauer, Interfaith Alliance executive director, puts a different spin on the results. She notes that the margins by which religious conservatives voted for Republicans dropped in November compared to two years ago. Hanauer believes the latest vote results demonstrate that the Christian Coalition's "bark was bigger than their bite."

Green says both Reed and Hanauer are correct. "The Christian Right had some significant successes, but they also had some significant failures."

Thanks in part to the efforts of Christian conservatives, Republicans retained the majority in the House, although the GOP did lose at least eight seats. However, Christian conservative support was not enough to save the campaigns of several key allies, including nine-term conservative pro-life Rep. Bob Dornan (R - Calif.) and novice Rep. Andrea Seastrand (R - Calif.), both targeted by labor unions and abortion-rights advocates. But other conservative stalwarts, including Baptist physician Tom Coburn (R - Calif.), chair of the House Profamily Caucus, and pro-life Rep. Helen Chenoweth (R - Idaho), survived tough challenges.

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January 6 1997, Vol. 41, No. 1