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Not far from the Texas ranch of George W. Bush after the November election, a sign at First Baptist Church read, "Crawford, Texas, home of President George W. Bush, Maybe." For the next few weeks, the eight words of First Baptist pastor Mike Murphy condensed countless hopes and fears of 276 million Americans concerning the election. In the end, Bush's victory in Florida over Vice President Al Gore gave him the Electoral College, but not the national popular vote.

In early December, though, Florida's Christian conservative politicians, known in the state legislature as the "God squad," had developed a behind-the-scenes plan to turn maybe into certainty. Led by House Speaker Tom Feeney, Religious Right legislators had tangled in times past with the Florida Supreme Court over school choice, abortion, racial quotas, the death penalty, and the teaching of yoga in public schools. So, in the face of the state court's early rulings for Gore, Feeney declared, "The House is prepared to act."

But the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Florida election recounts were unconstitutional and brought the election struggle to a close. Gore then conceded the election.

Bush's victory is clear, but his mandate is far from certain. This unsettling reality is due to the type of campaign he ran as well as the difficulty of leading a divided country.

Solid support
During his presidential campaign, Bush rode a powerful wave of Republican dominance in Texas as his springboard to national office. Bush campaign manager Karl Rove contrasted Bush's success with the days when "in east Texas, they said they hunted Republicans." One of the keys to Bush's victory was his solid base of support from evangelicals. They cast over one of three votes that Bush received, according to several national polls.

Bush, however, downplayed hard-core Religious Right issues, including his opposition to abortion and homosexuality, while also holding onto support from evangelicals. Angry at President Clinton, hungry for a White House victory, and unable to coalesce on any viable alternative to Bush's candidacy, the Religious Right became the silent majority of the Bush coalition, which included both social and political conservatives. For his part, Bush occasionally reassured small gatherings of Christian leaders that his presidency would not forsake the agenda of social conservatives. In Texas politics, Bush had simultaneously proclaimed faith-based social initiatives while ushering some of the movement's divisive advocates out the door.

Bush won a resounding re-election victory in the 1998 Texas elections, while "candidates with potential to upset his apple cart had their heads lopped off without Bush getting directly involved," according to Texas political conservative David Guenthner. Bush then was free to set an agenda that would salve the Religious Right's wounds without his being forced to take high-profile and nationally unpopular stands.

Practiced in winning on the promise of "compassionate conservatism" and unity politics, Bush brought an amiable persona to his national campaign. But late in the election game, African-American civil rights leaders and entertainers portrayed the Republicans as "Klansmen in suits," and some African Americans swung back into the Democratic fold.

Furthermore, the Bush campaign's miscalculations also led to a nearly fatal complacency in Florida. Gore's coalition of trade unions, urban residents, African Americans, and the potent support of Californians proved strong enough to win the popular vote, but not enough for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Bush's victory was cobbled together with voting blocs of evangelicals, Catholics, and other churchgoers, married couples, men, and small-town residents, according to national exit polls.

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January 8 2001, Vol. 45, No. 1