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Though both events were followed by visible displays of health and stamina, many Christian leaders are now asking how Cuban and American churches will respond to the eventual death of Castro and the likely lifting of the U.S. travel and trade embargo of Cuba.

The lessons of the former Soviet bloc suggest that communist countries do not undergo significant change with ease. Cuba's situation is particularly uncertain and affected by American politics. The U.S. House of Representatives voted 240-186 in July for a bill that would end the ban on most travel to Cuba. American experts on Cuba estimate 1.5 million Americans (many of them tourists) would visit the island within 12 months of the U.S. travel ban's abolition.

The opportunity to minister in Cuba may attract many missions-minded American churches, few of which have historical ties to Cuba. Given the island's small size and struggling economy, such attention may prove overwhelming from the Cuban perspective

"If the embargo is lifted quickly, you will likely have chaos," says Marcos A. Ramos, a professor of church history at the South Florida Center for Theological Studies and a Cuban who fled the island in 1966. "Every church from Juneau, Alaska, to Paducah, Kentucky, will send someone. And you can be certain that they'll all find a Cuban willing to pastor a new church or spearhead a new relief effort. This is not to say that it shouldn't happen. For many, the religious freedom is worth the risk. But the transition will be chaotic."

Teo Babun, a Cuban who came to America in 1961, echoes Ramos's concern. "It may surprise Christians in America to hear this, but every Cuban denominational leader I've talked to is scared about what will happen when the embargo is lifted," says Babun, executive director of echo-Cuba, an evangelical ministry helping coordinate American social and mission efforts to the island. "They fear that U.S. Christians will overwhelm their island with well-intended but uncoordinated and ultimately crushing aid."

Some American church leaders, anticipating a relaxing of trade restrictions, are already building new relationships. Within the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), seven presbyteries have established partnerships with three presbyteries of the Presbyterian Reformed Church in Cuba, exchanging pastors and helping with building projects. Similar arrangements are taking place within Assemblies of God, Lutheran, and Methodist churches.

But few doubt that the transition will be difficult, simply because churches and agencies have little opportunity to coordinate their efforts in advance.

Cuban pastors can't publicly suggest that the revolution is failing. Relations between Catholics (38 percent of the population) and Protestants (5 percent) have never been very strong.

Deep divisions exist between Protestant churches that have cooperated with the government—and are a part of the Cuban Council of Churches—and those that have not.

Jack Graves, vice president of the Overseas Council, an Indianapolis-based ministry brings theological education to the developing world, believes that Castro has deliberately fostered this divide to blunt the power of the church. Graves believes it will take years before church leaders—who have spent decades in a culture where it is prudent to be suspicious of just about everyone—learn to trust each other.

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October 1 2001, Vol. 45, No. 12