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Pundits who have heralded the rise of evangelical, red-state, "values" voters may awake one morning to find a large chunk of those voters missing—and not because the pundits were left behind.

Analysts who say they can predict voting patterns simply by knowing where people stand on "God, guns, and gays" will discover their stereotype is badly overdrawn. Contemporary wisdom overestimates the evangelical bloc by assuming much too strong a link between what people say they believe and what they do. Neither fervent belief in God nor biblical literalism automatically translates into moral or political conservatism.

For the past two years, I've been interviewing people who sell in Indiana's flea markets. Most of the flea market dealers have a deep, unshakeable belief in God. The dealers are also biblical literalists, if by that we mean that they believe Adam and Eve were historical figures and that Jesus was born of a virgin and raised bodily from the dead. But they don't refer to themselves as born again, are ambivalent about both gay marriage and abortion, and distrust churches almost as much as they distrust government and big business. They are no more likely to vote Republican than Democrat. Only one in six claims the label "liberal" or "conservative"; even fewer express a party preference.

Flea market dealers are a relatively small group, but they offer a window onto a much larger cross-section of Bible believers whose ideas are not forged in, or nurtured by, the traditional institutions of evangelicalism. A closer look at the dealers helps us see how institutions like churches, media, and nonprofit organizations link people's ideas to social actions.

My flea market research occurred at the crossing of two distinct paths in my life. On one path, I have spent my entire career studying the institutional effects of religious and political culture, writing books on Southern Baptist politics, faith-based welfare reform, and the public role of urban religion. On the other path, I'm well recognized at flea markets across Indiana, especially the two huge ones that surround the National Muzzle Loading Rifle Association championships in Friendship, Indiana. I've attended these events for 20 years. I am nearly too humble to mention that I am a nine-time NMLRA champion in knife and tomahawk throwing.

In my academic life, I became interested in the large gap between the 50 to 60 percent of Americans who are affiliated with congregations and the 85 to 90 percent who say they believe in God. Some have suggested that religious individualism accounts for the roughly one-third of Americans, approximately 100 million people, who believe but do not participate. These folks are sometimes characterized as adherents of New Age movements or Eastern religions or some eclectic combination of their own making. Some of these 100 million are so inclined, no doubt, but I knew most of my flea market friends considered themselves to be traditional, Bible-believing Christians who simply do not like church. Yes, they work on Sundays, but they do not miss church because they work. Rather, they work on Sundays because they steer clear of institutions that assign priority to 9 A.M. to 5 P.M. on Monday through Friday or 11:00 A.M. on Sunday.

I have had many informal conversations about these issues, but a generous grant from the Louisville Institute allowed me to design, record, and transcribe formal interviews. Although many of the dealers are distrustful of nosy strangers, I have long-time friends who introduced me around. And I paid $20 for a 45-minute session, which greased the skids. With a few exceptions, I interviewed people who (a) work for themselves in the markets and (b) attend worship less than twice per year. This kept my focus on people who have little connection to organized business or religion—self-made, self-professed individualists.

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October 2006, Vol. 50, No. 10