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The Problem with Counting Christians

Pew's new Religious Landscape Survey is helpful, but the maps are fuzzier than you might expect.

The new U.S. Religious Landscape Survey from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life renders familiar territory remarkable. This poll of more than 35,000 American adults has produced a map of population centers (major religious traditions), the boundaries that separate them, and the thoroughfares that connect them. Among the highlights of the latest findings:

  • Close to half (44 percent) of all Americans have changed religions or denominations at least once in their lifetimes.

  • Protestants now make up just 51 percent of the population, though the total Christian population remains as high as 78 percent.

  • Some 16 percent of American adults describe themselves as religiously "unaffiliated," more than twice the percentage who say they had no religious upbringing.

  • In addition to contributing to religious diversity, immigration also augments the country's church rolls, as 46 percent of foreign-born adults claim Catholic identity and 24 percent claim Protestant identity.

The survey's topline summary describes this scene as "both very diverse and extremely fluid," which is an apt assessment as long as one remembers that the subject examined is a landscape and not, say, a moving crowd in an airport. For all of the often quite illuminating attention they get, non-Christian religions still constitute only about 5 percent of the American population. All religious groups are gaining and losing members in a very competitive environment, but the overall percentages remain fairly stable year to year and even decade to decade. Contrary to some solicitations for home missions, America is not going to become a minority Christian country anytime soon.

Why Evangelical United Methodists Don't Count
The Pew report contains much useful information for pastors, educators, and any Americans who wish to better understand the land in which they live. Zooming in on this map, though, accentuates some peculiarities of its provenance. When social scientists map religion, they usually rely on self-identification to classify respondents. The main category of classification for Christians is denomination. But how well does a denominational label locate someone within America's diverse and fluid religious culture?

Classification by denomination runs into real thickets in the large "Protestant" territory on the Pew map. This survey divides American Protestant churches into three categories: evangelical, mainline, and historically black. These encompass 26.3, 18.1, and 6.9 percent of the adult population, respectively. The necessity of separating out the black churches could be debated (are they significantly more distinctive than, say, Pentecostal churches or Hispanic Catholic churches?), but the much larger problem involves the other two categories. Simply put, "evangelical" and "mainline" identities do not break cleanly along denominational lines, and they never have.

The two labels present different difficulties. With "evangelical," the most problematic slippage occurs between self-identification and what could be called actual adherence. Broadly speaking, evangelicals care less about one's church affiliation than about one's beliefs (about Atonement, the inspiration of Scripture, and so forth) and behaviors (such as church attendance, daily devotions, and various measures of morality). Put differently, many evangelicals would not count as co-religionist persons who check the Southern Baptist or Church of Christ box on a survey, but could neither articulate nor affirm the Four Spiritual Laws. A self-identification survey cannot measure depth of commitment, but in the case of evangelicals, depth is a critical element of the identity as insiders understand it.


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Comments

Displaying 1–3 of 10 comments

TruetoJC

March 04, 2008  6:07pm

Thank God our Lord knows how to seperate the sheep from the goats!Of course that does not help in compiling statistics or canvasing fordata of religeous people. Obviously there are problems and I see even more difficulies than shown in this article. Reason to doubt such statistics.

Philip

February 28, 2008  11:39am

I appreciate having these things pointed out to remind us that the statistics don't always tell us what we think, or are told... nonetheless, as a conservative Episcopalian (an oxymoron?) and having both seen a recent poll re: Christian beliefs and comments to a Lenten study in our own church, the run-of-the mill Episcopalian in the pew is about what one would surmise based on polls -- if not more so.

Kent

February 28, 2008  10:33am

We seem to live by polls & surveys these days. This article points out that things are not always what they seem and I think that is a good thing. I belong to a "so called" mainline church. Presbyterian. I heard from my Baptist friends that all Presbyterians were liberal so while looking for a church I steered away from any Presbyterian congregations. But I found that the congregation I now belong to is not liberal in it's theology. It is an evangelical, bible believing church. As the original Presbyterians were. As R.C.Sproul is. If I had answered the survey as to my congregation I would have been put into the "mainline" category. Johnathon Edwards would have been too.

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