The Risk Profile

Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.
George S. Patton

Is there a way to tell how risky a decision is? Perhaps. At least we can point to the statistical probability that a particular ministry decision will ultimately cause a pastor to leave a church. Pastors indicated they make only a few truly difficult decisions in a year. Yet those are tough indeed. The average tenure of a pastor in a church is somewhere between four and five years. Often moves are made because of decisions that have led to disaster.

Although this is a scary prospect, it is not cause to run, but to take stock. Every pastor faces strong pressures and strongwilled parishioners. And every decision can involve hundreds of major and minor variables. Many of these cannot be quantified:

— how your particular church board operates

— the characteristics of every individual on your board

— the unique characteristics of the staff

— the number of powerful families in your church

— the characteristics of those families

— the history of the issue being decided.

Many can be quantified, however. We have compiled the results of our survey into a practical self-test. Ask yourself the following questions about yourself and your church environment. Circle your answers as you go through the test. Following the test, you’ll find instructions on how to score your answers. (The survey from which we gathered the information used to contruct this test, along with more detailed analysis of the results, may be found in the Appendix.)

Questions

1. What is your education? (Circle all that apply to you.)
   1. No higher education degree
   2. Bible college degree
   3. Liberal arts degree
   4. Seminary degree
   5. Non-seminary master’s degree
   6. Doctorate
2. What is your current church membership size?
   1. less than 100
   2. 100-199
   3. 200-499
   4. 500 or more
3. How long have you been at this church?
   1. Less than one year
   2. 1-2 years
   3. 3-4 years
   4. 5 or more years
4. What is your age?
   1. 30 or under
   2. 31-40
   3. 41-50
   4. 51-60
   5. over 60
5. Which church is this in your ministry history?
   1. My first church
   2. My second church
   3. My third church
   4. Fourth or later church
6. What do you believe to be your dominant gifts/talents in ministry?
   1. Preaching
   2. Teaching
   3. Administration
   4. Counseling
   5. Pastoral ministry (visitation, etc.)
   6. Evangelism
   7. Music
   8. Other
7. Do you use a biblical character (such as Jesus, Paul, or Moses) as a model for decision making?
   1. Yes
   2. No
8. How many times in a typical year are you required to make decisions that you know will upset, offend, or bring disagreement from people in the congregation?
   1. THEOLOGICAL DECISIONS: (e.g., to take a stand on eschatology, spiritual gifts, divorce/remarriage, etc., that differs from some members’ views.)
      1. None
      2. 1-2 per year
      3. 3-4 per year
      4. 5 or more per year
   2. INSTITUTIONAL/ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS: (e.g., to recommend a ministry program that clashes with the polity or tradition of the church.)
      1. None
      2. 1-2 per year
      3. 3-4 per year
      4. 5 or more per year
   3. INTERPERSONAL DECISIONS: (e.g., handling a counseling session in a way that offends a church family, or having a conflict with a board member.)
      1. None
      2. 1-2 per year
      3. 3-4 per year
      4. 5 or more per year

Scoring Instructions

Now that you’ve completed the test, use these guidelines to score your answers:

(Not all of the answers from the questions above were shown to have a measurable level of riskiness or safety. The ones that do are listed below.)

How to Calculate Your Score

Add the safety points and subtract the risk points. The more positive your total score, the more safe is your current environment in ministry decision making. Use the following guidelines to evaluate your score.

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