Related articles and links |  1 of 3

On December 6, Republican congressman Robin Hayes from North Carolina made a decision that could well cost him his reelection bid in November. Hayes cast the tiebreaking vote to pass President Bush's Trade Promotion Act.

The bill, which would give Bush fast-track trade negotiating authority, was fiercely opposed by North Carolina's powerful textile industry. Hayes had decided to oppose it unless some protections could be added for the struggling industry. Then he received three phone calls. Andrew Card, the president's chief of staff, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, and House Speaker Dennis Hastert all called to enlist Hayes' support. The president needed his vote, or the Trade Act was dead. At the last minute, Hayes received word that the president had agreed to include protections for the textile industry. But unions and industry remain strongly opposed to the bill.

The bill is expected to pass in the Senate. Standing before the House Republican Conference, Hayes told members why he had ultimately decided to support the bill. "He stood up in front of the Republican Conference choked with emotion and said, 'I just want to tell you all, I'm not a hero,'" recalls Rep. Mike Pence, (R-Ind.).

"He said, 'I just want to tell you the fact that this President and the speaker of the House both claim the same Lord as I do had a big impact on me. I see them as men of integrity, and I wanted to hand them a victory.'

"The 220 Republican members sitting there were dumbfounded," says Pence, who attends a weekly Bible study with Hayes and five other congressmen. "[Senior] congressmen told me afterwards it was the gutsiest thing they had ever seen in Congress."

Hayes faces a tough reelection battle. He won his second term with 55 percent of the vote, but North Carolina Democrats have redrawn his district, increasing its majority of Democratic voters. Hayes is not the only politician whose eyes are already fixed on the November election, nine months away. This midterm election may significantly shift the balance of power in Washington. In the House, a net gain of six seats would put Democrats in control for the first time since 1994. In the Senate, Republican control would return with a net gain of one seat.

The stakes for the Bush administration are especially high since the political party that controls the White House most often loses congressional seats in midterm elections.

Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, says Republicans have recruited strong challengers. Key Republican targets include first-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson (South Dakota), who faces a tough race against Rep. John Thune.

Religious conservatives are rallying around Thune, a prolife social conservative. President Bush persuaded Thune to run for the seat. Other vulnerable Democrats in the Senate include Paul Wellstone (Minnesota), Jean Carnahan (Missouri), and Tom Harkin (Iowa). At-risk Republicans include Wayne Allard (Colorado), Robert Smith (New Hampshire), and Tim Hutchinson (Arkansas).

In North Carolina, former Cabinet secretary and presidential candidate Elizabeth Dole is far ahead in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. Dole, facing five possible Republican opponents, has been reassuring conservatives of her prolife views.

In the House, where two dozen seats are expected to be competitive, Republicans are counting on redistricting to provide extra protection for incumbents. Republicans predict they will pick up eight to ten seats from redistricting alone. With district boundaries being redrawn in all but seven states, analysts say the burden will be on Democrats.

next page... |  1 of 3

share this page

February 4 2002, Vol. 46, No. 2