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In Defeats, Evangelicals' Political Unity at All-Time High

In three decades, born-again voters have gone from an even split to 4-to-1 Republican.
Boris Grdanoski / AP

In Defeats, Evangelicals' Political Unity at All-Time High

While evangelical leaders have long protested that evangelicalism is politically diverse and is a theological identifier rather than a political one, it appears that evangelicals are more politically unified than ever before. But in most results from last night's elections: where evangelicals were largely unified, they also lost.

We know less about evangelical voters this year than we did four years ago because exit polls did not ask as many voters about being a "born again or evangelical" Christian. According to pre-election polls, white evangelicals backed Romney by nearly a four-to-one margin. Romney received a larger slice of the evangelical vote than any previous Republican presidential candidate. At nearly 80 percent, evangelical support for Romney was as strong—and perhaps even stronger—than the support Romney received from Mormons.

If further analysis bears such a figure out, it will be a dramatic benchmark in conservative Protestant voting trends. In 1982, exit polls showed an even 50-50 split of self-identified "born again" voters between Republican and Democratic candidates. That shifted to a 2-to-1 split favoring Republicans in the later '80s and throughout the 1990s. Even when some exit polls shifted the question to ask whether voters were "members of the religious right," two-thirds of such respondents supported Republican candidates. In 2004, "born again or evangelical" voters voted 3-to-1 for Bob Dole. In 2008, Democrats rebounded somewhat, with Obama receiving 29 percent of "born again/evangelical" support to John McCain's 71 percent. To put a four-to-one margin in perspective: It's the same percentage of self-identified Republicans who voted for George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Exit polls in Indiana highlight how evangelical voting in the Hoosier State has shifted since 2008. Four years ago, the economic conditions helped Obama win Republican states like Indiana. Only two-thirds of evangelicals (69%) voted for McCain. This year, evangelicals made up less of Indiana's electorate (35%, down from 41%). But they were significantly more Republican, with 79 percent backing Romney.

In the Indiana Senate race, evangelicals were comparatively less supportive of Republican Richard Mourdock (70 percent) and more supportive of pro-life Democrat Joe Donnelly (32 percent).

In Ohio, Romney had a more difficult time convincing evangelicals to support him. In 2008, McCain received 71 percent of evangelical votes in Ohio. Exit polls this year don't show much change, with 68 percent of evangelicals voting for the Republican ticket.

The high water mark for evangelical support for Romney was in Mississippi. Half of the voters in Mississippi were white evangelicals (up from 43 percent in 2008). Of these, 96 percent said they voted for Romney. In comparison, 94 percent of African-Americans in the state voted for Obama.

Maryland and Maine each voted to approve same-sex marriage. The state of Washington is also likely to approve gay marriage. (Its referendum is leading as we post this.) This is the first election in which voters—not legislatures or the courts—have approved same-sex marriage. In Minnesota, a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage was defeated, but state law still limits marriage to one man, one woman.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN) was instrumental in passing the state law eight years ago. On Tuesday, the former Republican presidential hopeful held on to her congressional seat—barely. She won by 3,000 votes, less than one percent of the vote.


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Comments

Displaying 1–3 of 85 comments

Jon Hakim

November 19, 2012  10:25am

I'm still waiting for the authors to explain why they think it's okay to act like the only real evangelicals are white evangelicals. They purposely ignore Black evangelicals, Latino evangelicals, Asian-American evangelicals, and Native American evangelicals in all their statistics. And in most cases, including the headline, they don't even admit that they're ignoring them! So what if 94% of White evangelicals voted for Romney in Mississippi - almost all White people in Mississippi voted for Romney! But don't the Black and Latino and Asian evangelicals, who may have had a different opinion, have a vote that counts too? Why are "African-Americans" a separate category there, as if they're not evangelical? I've commented before, sent an email, left a message...why haven't the authors realized how important this issue is? If you're going to segregate voters out and only count the White people, at least be clear that you're doing it and explain why.

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Paul Schryba

November 16, 2012  10:56pm

Claire: There are many factors in the decline of the middle class and increase in the numbers of poor, not do to Pres. Obama. The elimination of good paying government jobs at all levels through budget cuts is one of them, ignored by you. The migration of jobs overseas is another; you have implied elsewhere that is due to over taxation and government regulation. While that is a factor, I suggest to you that it is more due to the fact that there are millions of poor who are willing to work at subsistence level in countries that have no minimum wage, don't care about workplace safety and environmental conditions. Owners who seek only to 'maximize profit' and 'remain competitive' build where its cheap; and Joe/Josephine Six Pack buying cheap Chinese at the local mega-store, bypassing small business. Some poor have no choice- most do. Walmart reported a 9% increase in 3rd quarter sales, and accounted for 10% of non-auto retail sales in the US.

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Annie Weatherly-Barton

November 16, 2012  4:50am

I was very interested to read your response Claire. I think I can understand where you are coming from in terms of abortion, re-definition of marriage and immigration. I do have sympathy with your arguments. However the use of certain pieces of Biblical texts to back up the argument is choosing one text against the other. We have to take the whole gamut of God's word in order to understand what God is saying. Even then it would be somewhat arrogant to say we all know the mind of God. I do not believe I am biased towards Mr Obama and thus I am against Mr Romney. As you know Mr Romney came here and most people found him obnoxious and arrogant in the extreme. Perhaps I just do not see things in such black & white terms. Behind every decision and action there is a human face and when I am with folk who are facing very difficult decisions I choose to listen to them and as Ken Leech "walk through their hell with them."

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