Margin of Victory

Republican strategists proudly announced in 2004 that America had morphed into a conservative nation. What a difference two halting years in Iraq and one massive hurricane have made in severely undermining Republican gains.

Due to perceived missteps at home and abroad, Republicans face the very real prospect of losing both the Senate and the House of Representatives, which they raucously claimed in 1994.

Nevertheless, white evangelicals’ support for Republican candidates remains high. But maybe not high enough to staunch Republican losses. October polling from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press indicates 60 percent of these evangelicals plan to vote for Republican candidates. Just one month earlier, 64 percent said they would back Republicans. Contributing to the decline is the lack of a galvanizing candidate and social issue, such as President Bush and gay marriage in 2004.

“The sense of urgency for a lot of people who care about traditional marriage probably isn’t there as much as it was two years ago,” Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., told CT. “Recent court decisions have been more favorable toward traditional marriage.”

Christianity Today has identified four key races to follow on Election Night. These contests feature debates about issues of special concern to evangelicals.

“These are races where evangelicals really could make the difference, no matter how they vote,” said John Green, senior fellow with the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.