If you are a political junkie, this is the time you live for: the closing stretch of a presidential campaign. Every day brings another pile of stories: "G.O.P Leaders Fret at Lapses in Bush's Race," for instance, right next to "Gore Offers Vision of Better Times for Middle Class." (Hey, whatever happened to "working families"?) Debates are just around the corner, and meanwhile there's the debate over the format of the debates.
I hate to be the one to rain on your parade, but according to a covy of political scientists, all this campaign hoopla is just a big show. As Robert Kaiser writes in the Washington Post, reporting on the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in Washington, D.C., seven academic number-crunchers have announced that "Campaign 2000 is effectively over."
Indeed, Alan Abramowitz of Emory University says that "the outcome of a presidential election can be accurately predicted based on factors that are known well before the official campaign gets under way."
But what about the carefully crafted and obscenely expensive attack ads? The personal appearances (Gore's all-nighter, for instance, or "Bush Planning to Emphasize Town Meetings")? The dueling plans to spend the budget surplus?
No, it doesn't mean diddley, Abramowitz says, fingering his calculator: "Despite the time, effort, and money devoted to campaigning, there is very little that the candidates can do during September and October to alter the eventual outcome of a presidential election."
So what does determine the outcome of the election? Well, Kaiser explains, "Abramowitz's model—using a complex mathematical formula—combines economic growth in the first half of the election year, the popularity of the incumbent president July 1, and the number of terms the incumbent party has been in power." The other analysts have their own wrinkles, but they all rely heavily on measures of economic growth and, more broadly, the national sense of well-being or lack thereof. And according to their forecasts—on this all agree—Al Gore will be our next president.
Are they right? We'll answer that question next week.
John Wilson is Editor of Books & Culture and Editor-at-Large for Christianity Today.
The Washington Post's August 31 article, "Academics Say It's Elementary: Gore Wins," is available online. Other articles on the American Political Science Association forecasts include:
A Presidential Hopeful's Progress | The spiritual journey of George W. Bush starts in hardscrabble west Texas. Will the White House be his next stop? (Sept. 5, 2000)
With corporate consolidation in worship music, more entities are invested in the songs sung on Sunday mornings. How will their financial incentives shape the church?
The late pastor theologian gave strong counsel to me and so many others in ministry.
With corporate consolidation in worship music, more entities are invested in the songs sung on Sunday mornings. How will their financial incentives shape the church?español
The Spirit’s descent at Pentecost is a model for diverse and distributed leadership.
