Malcolm Gladwell told the story of the battle of Chancellorsville, VA, in which General "Fighting Joe" Hooker maneuvers his Union Army to encircle the Confederate Army on three sides, and then delivers a speech to his troops: "God Almighty Himself cannot prevent us from victory in this battle."

What led to such misguided certainty? As the battle unfolded, it turned out he was horribly wrong.

Having more and more information leads to greater, even excess confidence. It's called miscalibration. We have lots of information. You think you know more than you actually know.

Mistakes are made not because of LACK of knowledge, but because of excess knowledge. Mistakes are sometimes not the result of incompetence, but because of overcompetence. Incompetence irritates me. Overconfidence scares me.

Our economic disaster is a result of very smart, overconfident people making some terrible decisions.

What happened at Chancellorsville? Lee didn't retreat, as expected, but counterattacked and surprised and ...